Well, sort of.
Just as we were putting the final touches on packing our belongings to head to Mexico I received word from my host at The D Casino that I had been selected as one of the finalists in the drawing for a 2020 Corvette Stingray ZR1.
The only catch being that the drawing is Saturday, January 17 and you have to be there in person to win.
If I ever get around to writing my book on gambling, one of the topics is going to be the importance of giveaways and promotions in determining where and when you play and one of the most important sub-topics of that is determining equity. In other words, you have to be able to accurately assess your chances of winning whatever it is being offered in the promotion.
In this case, the calculation (if not the decision to return) was easy. The car is worth about $100,000 and I am one of only 50 people with one chance each to win it. The odds are easy for even someone horrible in math to figure out — 50 to 1, but I had to decide if it was worth the cost of flying back to the Las Vegas for a weekend, risking exposure to COVID and the sheer hassle of dealing with travel, customs, etc.
But the equity of the value of the chance to win is easy to figure out in this case also — about $2,000 ($100K divided by 50). It’s costing us a few hundred bucks to fly back, but we have the opportunity to bring back more of our belongings and clothes to Mexico, so we determined it was worth it, hence we’re actually going to be in Las Vegas on Friday and Saturday. I have to work most of the day Friday and Saturday will be tied up with the drawing, so I didn’t want to make a big deal of it, but that’s what’s happening.
If you see a Stingray ZR1 tooling around the streets of Puerto Vallarta next week you’ll know who it is.
(Just to be clear, if I’m lucky enough to win it I’m NOT keeping the car. I’ll sell it in a hot minute as there’s literally nothing I could do with a car like that in Mexico even if I could afford to pay the taxes and import fees. Even if I still lived in Las Vegas I need a $100K car like I need a hole in my head — though I admit it would be awesome to be able to drive it at least once. My understanding is the car is so rare that several collectors come to the drawing hoping that someone who doesn’t want the car wins it and wants to sell. So hopefully that’s me!)